Shifting some regions of New Zealand to the orange light setting and keeping others at red could be on the cards, the Prime Minister says ahead of Cabinet's meeting.
Ministers will review the COVID-19 Protection Framework settings on Monday afternoon and whether the red light settings continue to be appropriate for New Zealand.
Already over the last two weeks, the Government has loosened the rules and is about to drop vaccine passes and some mandates. The key difference between red and orange is that at orange, there is no indoor gathering limits.
Speaking to AM on Monday morning ahead of Cabinet's decision, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said ministers will be examining trends in hospitalisations
"The point I think of moving is less about the number of cases but more about hospitalisations," she said.
"The idea is to move at a point when we believe that our hospitalisations have stabilised and that even if there were a small number that might be contributed it wouldn't have an impact on our health system."
Hospitalisations are trending downwards nationally, according to the latest Ministry of Health data. For example, on March 22, there were 1016 people in hospital. A week later, on March 29, there were 842 hospitalisations. On Saturday, there were just 678, before jumping slightly on Sunday to 690.
But that's a national figure. As Ardern explained, while big centres like Auckland are seeing hospitalisations coming off their peak, in other regions they continue to rise.
"We do have quite a bit of pressure in the system still. In Auckland and Wellington, in particular, we've seen cases come away but in other areas, we're only just starting to plateau in terms of hospitalisations or are still increasing. So that's the environment we making these decisions in."
That raised the question of whether some parts of New Zealand could move to orange, while others stay in red a little longer while their cases and hospitalisations stabilise
"We do have the ability to take different approaches in different parts of the country. You can have different settings in different places," she said.
"It certainly is on the downward trend in Auckland, and that is a possibility. But we need to also take into account that this is about our hospital system and our hospital network often works with one another.
"Look that's something Cabinet will consider today, but we will be careful, we will be cautious."
Ardern said it is "very difficult" to model the impact of moving to orange on hospitalisations, which is why ministers will focus on, if the change was made, "do we believe we have the capacity in our system to operate normally and to be able to continue with regular health care."
Monday's review of the settings is part of a regular cycle, the Prime Minister said, and hasn't been triggered by anything in particular.
ACT leader David Seymour on Monday morning said it's time for the Prime Minister to "give up her vice like grip on controlling our lives".
In his statement, titled 'I'm waiting for it, that green light, I want it' - a line from Lorde's song Green Light - Seymour said Ardern should either scrap the traffic light system or "at the very least take some advice" from the Kiwi songstress.
"Jacinda, Ashley and Chris have just made it up as they’ve gone along. Kiwis are tired of rules that don’t make sense. Now we could be confused even further as the Government talks about moving some centres to Orange and keeping others in Red," Seymour said.
"They don’t even seem to be considering a move to Green. Instead of all the tinkering, let’s just get on with our lives.
"The rest of the world is moving on and dropping restrictions. We desperately need tourists to want to come to here – why would they choose New Zealand if they face restrictions when they arrive.
"Imagine coming over from Australia and facing one set of rules in Auckland and another in Christchurch."
According to the traffic light framework, orange reflects a situation where this is community transmission of COVID-19 "with increasing risks to vulnerable communities and pressure on the health system". That's compared to red where "we need to take action to protect" those communities and the system.
Moving to orange over the next week would come ahead of the return of tourists. From April 12, vaccinated Australians can fly into New Zealand. That's expanded to vaccinated people from visa-waiver countries from May 1.
In late March, the Government changed the 'red' setting rules to remove outdoor gathering limits and to double indoor limits from 100 to 200 people. QR code scanning was also done away with. On Monday night, vaccine passes - once critical to the traffic light system - will no longer be required and some mandates dropped.
