Labour's David Parker doesn't think his party's candidate is likely to win the Tauranga by-election.
"We haven't won Tauranga since 1935. So we're not going to win it this time, I don't think," Parker said on Friday morning.
"On the other hand, we're standing because we're the oldest party in New Zealand. We've helped build New Zealand. We always put our best foot forward. But we're not expecting history to change even though we have a fantastic candidate in Jan Tinetti."
It's only been two days since Tinetti was confirmed as Labour's candidate at the June 18 by-election and the party's attempting to keep expectations of an upset victory very low.
The press release announcing Tinetti's candidacy twice mentions that the electorate rarely leaves National's hands, while Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Thursday was also tempering expectations.
"History talks down our chances in Tauranga… there hasn't been any series of events since 1935 that has led to a Labour win in Tauranga so I am not necessarily anticipating that anything will change in the next couple of months."
Ardern said Tinetti is an "excellent candidate", but "history tells a story of where that seat tends to go".
In the announcement of her candidacy on Wednesday, Tinetti said she was looking forward to the contest.
"While Labour hasn't won Tauranga in a long time, I'm excited to showcase Labour's values and achievements in this by-election," she said.
"I offer the community in Tauranga a direct voice in Government and a seat at the Cabinet table. The future of Tauranga is central to the future of New Zealand"
The by-election has been forced by the resignation of former National Party leader Simon Bridges. He won the seat in 2008 and has held it ever since, including at the 2020 election when other safe National seats fell to the Labour landslide.
National, which hasn't chosen its new candidate yet, has represented Tauranga since 1938 other than a period between 1993 and 2005 when New Zealand First leader Winston Peters took it. Peters is yet to confirm whether he will challenge for the seat this year.
Tinetti, who was made a minister after the 2020 election, ran in the seat in both 2017 and 2020. In 2017, she gained nearly 26 percent of the vote against Bridges' 54 percent, and pushed her support to nearly 39 percent in 2020 compared to Bridges' 43 percent.
Newshub revealed on Thursday that a poll of 500 eligible Tauranga voters, commissioned by ACT and undertaken by National's pollster Curia, found that ACT was seen as the most effective Opposition party since the 2020 election.
ACT is running candidate Cameron Luxton in the seat. He also ran in 2020, coming in a distant fourth with just under 4 percent of the vote.
Appearing on AM on Friday morning, National deputy leader Nicola Willis didn't seem concerned.
"I think the real question for New Zealanders is who you think will be the most effective Government and I trust that the people of Tauranga want to see National leading the Government next year. Hey, but look, the ACT candidate's got a great name, doesn't he?"
National's leader is named Christopher Luxon.
