An international relations academic says it's "less essential" for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to meet US President Joe Biden than for New Zealand officials and business people to have time with their American counterparts.
Associate Professor Stephen Hoadley, a foreign policy analyst at the University of Auckland, also believes that from a political point of view, it may be more valuable for Ardern to instead meet with the President next year in the run-up to the 2023 election.
Whether Ardern journeys to the White House while on her mega US trade and business trip continues to hang in the balance, with both sides apparently expressing a desire for a meeting to happen, but logistics up in the air due to the Prime Minister's recent COVID-19 diagnosis.
"We wouldn't be discussing COVID protocols if there wasn't an intention to meet," she said on Monday.
It would be Ardern's first trip to the Oval Office as Prime Minister after no visit during President Donald Trump's Administration and COVID-19 border closures stifling any sit-down since Biden was elected in late 2020.
"It would be a great photo opportunity. It would put Jacinda Ardern on the same footing as John Key and Jim Bolger and her other predecessors," Hoadley told Newshub Late.
"But my view is that it's less essential than that the team that she's taken with her meets their counterparts, the private sector counterparts, the government counterparts, the trade representatives and so forth."
He compared it to a rugby team travelling abroad.
"Yes, the coach is really important, but it's the whole team that makes the game and maybe wins the game. I think this is where the New Zealand team is going to have to work together, whether or not the coach meets the coach of the other team."
If the COVID-19 protocols can't be worked through and a meeting between Ardern and Biden isn't secured, Hoadley said it could always be postponed until next year.
"She can come back again next year, which actually might work better for her in the run-up to the election. The National Party is making inroads on the Labor majority and she will need, I think, a boost of popularity perhaps to get past the line and get her third term in office. A meeting with Biden during the election campaign would certainly help her politically."
Professor Al Gillespie, an international relations expert at Waikato University, says it is "critical" for New Zealand to have conversations with the US given current international security concerns. One particularly close to New Zealand is the recent security cooperation deal between China and the Solomon Islands.
"We've been very close to the Five Eyes and to the United States and we rely on them now more than ever for international security so to be there and be part of those direct conversations," Gillespie said.
Speaking at the University of Otago on Monday, former Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said the US was only just catching up with what it needs to do in the Pacific. He is advocating for like-minded countries, including New Zealand, to stand together and put more resources into the region to counter the influence of China.
"Going about our business separately will not see us get the results and achievement we seek to accomplish. Going about it collectively - and thank heaven the Americans are starting to say it now - if we pool our resources, we will do a whole lot better."
It was confirmed on Monday night that New Zealand would join the US' Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, a high-level agreement between 13 countries on the likes of supply-chain resilience and digital trade. It's seen as a response to China's growing economic footprint in the region.
But it's not a traditional trade agreement that includes cutting trade tariffs.
Gillespie said he would love to see a free trade deal with the US, our third-largest trading partner.
"I think our economies should be more interlinked than they are. It's an anomaly that they aren't. Especially when you consider we've just concluded a new free trade agreement with Britain."
