The cost of living crisis has cost the Government dearly with New Zealand turning on Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her administration.
Labour has suffered a dramatic drop in support in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll and National has streaked ahead of them, cracking the golden 40 percent mark.
Fresh from her first post-pandemic trip to Singapore and Japan, Ardern has received a rotten welcome home gift from the public: a crisis poll.
Labour's vote has plummeted 6.1 points, down to 38.2 percent - its first tumble into the 30s since Ardern became Prime Minister in 2017.
National has shot past Labour, cracking the 40 percent mark. It's now at 40.5 percent, up a whopping 9.2 points, reaching close to its pre-pandemic heights.
That means ACT's reality check has bedded in. It's at 6.4 percent, down 1.6.
The Greens are on the descent too, at 8.4 percent, down 1.2 points.
Bucking the minors' trend, the Māori Party is up a nudge, at 2.5 percent, up 0.5.
National would be the biggest party in Parliament on these figures, with 51 seats. Add on ACT's eight seats, and the centre-right would have 59 - not quite enough to wrest power. It's just two seats shy of the 61 needed.
Labour couldn't do it either. Its 48 seats plus the Greens' 10 come to 58. They would need three seats to get over the line.
If the Māori Party holds on to the Waiariki electorate, it would get the three remaining seats and decide who gets to captain the country. They've already decided who they won't work with.
It doesn't get more interesting than this.
Let the race begin.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 18 April – 27 April 2022 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
