Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says diplomacy and de-escalation won't succeed in the Indo-Pacific if the region "becomes increasingly divided and polarised" and if countries "we seek to engage with are increasingly isolated".
In a major foreign policy speech at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Ardern explained how New Zealand sought to uphold its independent foreign policy when the "world is bloody messy".
It comes against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, commentators suggested similar events could eventually play out with China invading Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own.
Ardern on Thursday said Moscow's aggression should not be seen as a "war of the west vs Russia" or "democracy vs autocracy".
"Nor should we naturally assume it is a demonstration of the inevitable trajectory in other areas of geostrategic contest," the Prime Minister said.
"In the wake of the tensions we see rising including in our Indo-Pacific region, diplomacy must become the strongest tool and de-escalation the loudest call.
"We won't succeed, however, if those parties we seek to engage with are increasingly isolated and the region we inhabit becomes increasingly divided and polarised. We must not allow the risk of a self-fulfilling prophecy to become an inevitable outcome for our region."
She said New Zealand seeks to "ensure that the intensity of our engagement is increasing and we call for others to do the same".
"We have legacy and interests in the Indo-Pacific. As does Australia. Both countries have invested heavily in relationships and institutions there – not least because what happens in the Indo-Pacific impacts our neighbourhood.
"It follows that we must strengthen the resilience of the Indo-Pacific through relationships and importantly economic architecture."
Australia's relationship with China has been seriously strained over recent years, with calls for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19 among a number of issues leading to trade tariffs. There was silence between ministers of the two countries until recently with a change of government in Australia, but relations remain frosty.
Ardern laid out three principles as key to New Zealand's foreign policy as being collectivism, values and place.
And New Zealand's place, Ardern said, is the Pacific.
"In our region we're observing an increasingly contested environment, and add to that the wider global impacts of an ongoing pandemic, the economic crisis that has ensued, and the powerful forces that are disrupting social cohesion and the trust people have in the institutions that serve them," Ardern said.
"And if this isn't enough, we are yet to succeed in addressing one of the most immediate security issues in our region, that of climate change. In a word, it's grim out there."
There's been a heightened focus on the Pacific in recent times as China makes a play for more influence in the region, including through its security cooperation deal with the Solomon Islands.
The United Kingdom and the United States have both committed to stepping up their engagement here, while NATO is also wanting to strengthen its relationships here as it explained at a leaders summit last week.
Ardern said the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) must be the "vehicle for addressing regional challenges", highlighting that Pacific nations "have a history of meeting one another's needs", such as by deploying personnel to Honiara in the wake of recent unrest there.
"Importantly we see local security challenges being resolved locally, with Pacific Islands Forum Members' security being addressed first and foremost by the Forum family."
Other countries, including China, have long played a role in the Pacific and it would be wrong to characterise their engagement as "new" or to not acknowledge that island nations are sovereign and can make their own decisions, Ardern said.
She said priorities should be set by the Pacific and "free from coercion" with "high quality" investment.
"Issues that affect the security of all of us, or may be seen as the militarisation of the region should come through the PIF as set out in the Biketawa and Boe declaration, as such a change would rightly affect and concern many.
"Ultimately, rather than increased strategic competition in the region though, we need instead to look for areas to build and cooperate, recognising the sovereignty and independence of those for whom the region really is home."
"And so while we each maintain our independence, and New Zealand certainly does, we are part of a family. One that is incredibly important to us and central in our decision-making. "
The country's foreign policy priorities have mostly not changed for decades, Ardern said, mentioning New Zealand's nuclear stance. But there are others which "did not even exist 50 years ago", like terrorist and violent extremist content online, while there is a more significant focus on climate change.
