The government's decision to scrap the COVID-19 Protection Framework is reasonable, but it is a mistake to drop mask mandates for public transport, an epidemiologist says.
As of midnight Monday 12 September, masks will only be required in health and aged care settings and household contacts do not have to isolate with cases if they return daily negative RAT results.
Auckland University epidemiologist professor Rod Jackson said it was a reasonable decision for now, but warned "it's the next variant we need to worry about".
"I think at the moment it's one of those decisions which is quite reasonable, because we still have a variant that vaccination and prime infection seem to protect against severe disease and death for the vast majority of people, so I think at the moment we're OK, but it's all about what the next variant looks like."
He told Checkpoint masks should continue to be used in confined spaces such as buses and planes.
"Those are settings where you're sitting right next to somebody and you don't know whether they've got COVID, they don't know whether they've got COVID, so that's a setting where I think we should have retained masks."
Jackson said he would still be wearing a mask in confined spaces, and encouraged people to wear N95 masks - "that is incredibly protective for most of us".
He was not as concerned about large, ventilated indoor spaces as he was about public transport.
"I think that's a mistake, unless they have some information I don't have... on the buses I would be concerned, in confined spaces I would be concerned. So I'm going to make sure I'm wearing a high quality mask in those settings."
Those eligible should get their boosters because vaccination was a good defence against severe disease and death, he said.
University of Otago epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker agreed that a mask mandate should be retained for public transport.
"We need criteria to identify these high-risk situations, particularly those that are confined, crowded, and close-contact where people are regularly exposed," he said.
"On that basis, public transports would be an important environment for universal mask use, at least until we have sustained low COVID-19 transmission, which we have not yet reached."
Baker said there needed to be a framework to replace the traffic light system.
"Such a framework can provide a simple, meaningful way for describing the level of risk posed by COVID-19 and a proportionate response at each level," he said.
"We have systems for categorising the risk from fires, storms, and earthquakes so this is a well-established approach to managing threats.
"We certainly know enough to have a science-based alert-level system for COVID-19 and other respiratory disease pandemics."
Baker said we could expect to COVID-19 to continue to evolve and generate further waves of infection that would require a coordinated response.
University of Otago epidemiologist Dr Amanda Kvalsvig said the government needed to consider all New Zealanders when removing protection measures.
"Reduced measures mean that disabled and immune-compromised people will now be sharing public spaces with unmasked people who could be a household contact of a case and actively infectious," she said.
Kvalsvig said with mask mandates ending, the need for excellent indoor air quality was important.
"Indoor ventilation and air filtration are now urgent public health priorities for New Zealand and the good news is, they really work.
"But without safe access to public spaces many disabled people will have to make choices no-one should have to make, between a lockdown - but this time, a private one with no endpoint - or taking on the risk of a life-changing or life-limiting infection," she said.
What other political parties are saying
The Green Party said the decision to scrap the traffic light system would leave people wondering whether the government has given up responding to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Its spokesperson for COVID-19, Teanau Tuinono, said the near-complete removal of longstanding protections would be of considerable concern for immunocompromised and disabled people.
He said the focus must shift to slowing the spread of COVID-19 using long-term protective public health measures, alongside equal access to all future vaccines.
"The risk people face from long-COVID and the potential for new, more infectious variants hasn't changed," he said.
"The government must invest now in long-term protections. This is particularly vital for ensuring that our disabled and immunocompromised whānau can continue to go about their normal lives without putting their health at greater risk."
However, the ACT Party said our isolation rules for those who tested positive were still too strict and should be changed.
ACT leader David Seymour said New Zealand's isolation rules were amongst the strictest in the world.
"No other jurisdiction requires seven days mandatory isolation for cases and household contacts. Jacinda Ardern needs to look to the rest of the world and change what are currently the world's most inflexible isolation rules.
"Keeping people locked in their houses longer than is necessary imposes real costs to them and the economy, without improving our COVID-19 response.
"We need a COVID-19 response that considered all the costs to New Zealanders' wellbeing as well as the benefits of fighting COVID-19 when putting controls in place," Seymour said.
Auckland Mayor Phil Goff said the government's decision reflected the significant reduction in risk posed by the virus due to rapidly falling infections.
"The traffic light system has helped Kiwis to manage the risk to themselves, their families, and our communities for nearly a year," he said.
"However, with case numbers dropping steadily and most people having a level of protection due to vaccination and often partial immunity from prior infection, the time has come for New Zealanders to make their own assessment on measures they need to take to reduce the risk of catching COVID-19."
Goff said lifting restrictions brought New Zealand in line with other similar countries around the world. He hoped the change would further facilitate the movement of tourists, international students, and skilled migrants into New Zealand.
The business sector's response
Businesses have applauded the move, with Hospitality New Zealand saying it was the best news it's had for two and half years and would make all the difference to cafes and restaurants.
Business leader Kirk Hope says it was encouraging to the government was trusting individual firms to decide how they would limit the spread of the virus.
Alan McDonald from the Employer and Manufacturers Association said the move was symbolic as much as anything, as there had already been high non-compliance around mask-wearing.
"I think it's a really positive signal ... because it does kind of signal the end of the restrictions and the restraints we've been living under," he said.
"It's a bit hard to convince people we're open for business when you've still got orange restrictions on your international travellers."
He said the removal of mask mandates would be particularly welcomed in the hospitality and retail sectors.
"It'll be interesting to see if it actually encourages a few people to go back to work in the hospo and retail sectors, because they won't have to wear a mask all day," he said.
While masks would no longer be required on Air New Zealand flights, the airline said customers would still be welcome to wear them and they would continue to be available.
However, masks may still be required on some outbound international flights depending on the individual jurisdiction the flight is arriving in, the airline said.
"While some customers and employees will welcome this news, it doesn't mean masks are disappearing forever. We really encourage customers to continue to do what makes them comfortable, which is the same message we're sharing with our employees," Air New Zealand spokesperson Leanne Geraghty said.
The airline has also reminded people they can get a credit until the end of the month if they decide they don't want to travel following the changes.
RNZ
