New Zealand's intelligence services last year warned there was a "realistic possibility" someone inspired by anti-government rhetoric could commit a "spontaneous act of extremist violence".
It's thought that act of violence could happen "during a routine act of legal or regulatory enforcement".
The briefing, which is dated November 29, 2021, but first reported on Friday by Newsroom, examined the likelihood of members of the Sovereign Citizen (SovCit) movement to commit an act of violence.
It was developed by the Combined Threat Assessment Group (CTAG) and police's Security Intelligence and Threats Group. The full briefing hasn't been released publicly, but Newshub has been provided with a summary.
The Sovereign Citizen movement is a loose grouping of people who are anti-government and anti-authority. They don't believe laws apply to them and don't follow the directions of law enforcement or courts.
"SovCit is a highly diverse, decentralised movement that claims national governments are illegitimate and that individuals can legally withdraw their consent to be governed by national governments," the summary said.
"SovCit rhetoric has become increasingly prominent in New Zealand in connection to anti-authority movements opposed to COVID-19 mitigation programmes, as well as in groups claiming connection to the Māori community."
While the movement is "not inherently violent", some individuals adhering to its ideology have been responsible for violent extremism overseas, particularly against law enforcement the summary said.
"There is a realistic possibility that a threat actor inspired by SovCit rhetoric will commit a spontaneous act of extremist violence in New Zealand."
The briefing was prepared before the protest at Parliament in February. Police warned during the protest that some participants were "actively promoting false advice about people's rights and police powers, which is misleading and factually incorrect".
"For example, the use of a particular word or phrase by an individual will not impact the arrest of anyone involved in unlawful activity," said Superintendent Corrie Parnell, Wellington District Commander.
Disinformation researcher Byron Clark suggested at the time that was the result of "sovereign citizen nonsense" spreading amongst some of the protesters, who were mostly anti-COVID-19 restrictions and vaccinations.
The summary of the November briefing said SovCit rhetoric and themes "have manifested with increasing regularity in protests against COVID-19 mitigation programmes".
"As the pandemic has evolved, claims of "sovereign" exemptions from public health measures such as lockdowns and mask mandates have morphed into a wide-ranging resistance to mitigation programmes such as vaccination mandates and travel restrictions."
It said that SovCit beliefs had emerged among New Zealand groups. But it wasn't aware of any extremist violence in New Zealand linked to the beliefs.
"Likewise, CTAG and NZP are currently not aware of any information to indicate a credible, specific threat of extremist violence from SovCit individuals or groups in New Zealand or against New Zealand interests abroad."
It anticipated an increase in SovCit rhetoric in anti-authority extremism spaces in New Zealand, particularly online.
"We anticipate this will occur particularly in response to COVID-19 mitigation programmes and environmental protection regulations. However, we judge this increase will remain largely opportunistic over the near term and is highly unlikely to signal a significant upsurge of committed, long-term SovCits in New Zealand."
But there was a "realistic possibility that a violent extremist or group of violent extremists, motivated by SovCit beliefs, will commit a spontaneous act of violence in direct response to a perceived 'assault' by government agencies during a routine act of legal or regulatory enforcement".
That "perceived 'assault'" could include an attempt to force a member of the SovCit movement to comply with a law they deemed illegitimate or for which they believed they had withdrawn their consent.
"We judge this is almost certain to include elements COVID-19 mitigation programmes perceived as 'oppressive'."
In May, Newshub reported CTAG and police had found it was "likely" a small group of individuals "have or will develop the intent to carry out an act of extremist violence" in either reprisal to the February Parliament protest clearance or to "compensate for a perceived lack of 'success'".
