Labour has leapfrogged National in the latest Newshub-Reid Research Poll, showing new leader Chris Hipkins is a game-changer.
It's a huge turnaround for a party that was previously trending downwards in support - Hipkins has proven to be Labour's saviour.
But converting the left and right blocs' support into seats in the House shows how tight the race remains.
Labour has risen to 38 percent, up a mighty 5.7 points. It has commandeered most of it from National, which has plunged back under Labour to 36.6 percent, down 4.1 points.
The Greens have also suffered in the Hipkins honeymoon, falling to 8.1, down 1.4 percentage points. ACT has escaped unscathed though with a teeny bump of 0.7 taking it to 10.7 percent.
Among the other parties, it's neck and neck but none are near the 5 percent threshold needed to get into Parliament.
New Zealand First is at the top of this pack but has dropped back 1.1 points to 2.2 percent. Te Pāti Māori is holding reasonably steady at 1.8 percent, down 0.1. The Opportunities Party is up 0.3 to 1.5 percent.
But this is where things get really thrilling - how many seats in the House each side gets.
In Parliament, 61 seats are needed to govern.
On these results, Labour would get 48 and the Greens would get 10. That adds up to 58, so not enough.
But National's 46 and ACT's 14 don't get them there either. They would be one seat shy on 60.
Assuming Te Pāti Māori wins an electorate seat again, its result would get them two seats in Parliament. They're more likely to go with the left, so that's 60 seats each way.
What does that mean? A draw, a dead heat - a hung Parliament.
This is as close as it gets. Labour is back and this year's election is going to keep everyone on the edge of their seats.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 22 January – 27 January 2023 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
