National may come to regret its leader's decision to rule out Te Pāti Māori with the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll showing it as kingmaker.
The countdown clock to Decision '23 is at exactly five months on Sunday - and boy it's going to be a belter.
The top two parties - Labour and National - are in a blanket finish. They'll be looking to the minors and the minnows to cross the line and secure 61 seats in Parliament.
The results reveal that Labour is in front by the slimmest of whiskers. It's at 35.9 percent, down 2.1 percentage points.
But nearly even-stevens and nipping on Labour's heels is National. It's at 35.3 percent, down 1.3 percentage points.
The minors haven't really moved. ACT is at 10.8 percent, up a smidge of 0.1, while the Greens are holding steady at 8.1 percent despite their dramas.
Now let's look at the minnows.
Te Pāti Māori pulled off a coup by getting Meka Whaitiri to cross sides from Labour, and the results reveal it also picked up support as well. It's at 3.5 percent, up 1.7 percentage points.
New Zealand First is also looking back in the game at 3 percent, up 0.8.
Both of those parties are nudging ever closer to the magic 5 percent threshold that's needed to get into Parliament without an electorate seat.
Meanwhile, The Opportunities Party is at 2 percent, up 0.5.
So who can cobble a coalition together? Remember, 61 is the winning number of seats in Parliament.
Labour can get 46, and when you add in the Greens' 10, you get 56. That's nowhere near.
National gets 45 plus ACT's 14, putting the right bloc at 59, but no cigar.
Assuming Te Pāti Māori win an electorate, they'll get five seats.
As National has ruled them out, let's put them over with the left and that just gets the Labour grouping across the line. Labour's 46 seats, the Greens' 10 and Te Pāti Māori's five gets them to 61.
The starting gun has sounded - bang - and they're off.
The race to election day starts right now.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 5 May – 11 May 2023 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
