It's official New Zealand, we're in a recession - but only just.
It's actually more like Recession with a little r.
The latest Stats NZ data showed the economy contracted 0.1 percent in the first three months of this year, just qualifying for the technical definition, which is two negative quarters.
Devastating weather events across the North Island contributed, as did kids missing school days, and the big question now is how long until we're out the other side.
Richele McKenzie has owned Florence Boutique in Wellington for 14 years, and right now it's hard.
"The last few months have definitely been tougher," she said. "People are not spending as much money, they're scared to spend money and they're worried about their jobs as well."
There was confirmation on Thursday that we're in a recession, something that's no surprise to Richele.
"I knew it was happening. You've been able to tell the last few months definitely," she said.
On the streets of Wellington, people are feeling it too.
"We are paying $14 for tomatoes," one person said.
"It is a tight market. They held back doing pay rises over the last two rounds," said another.
"I feel for some of the younger kids these days, to be honest. There's plenty of talented people out there and not quite as many jobs," said a third.
"Haven't made as much more money as inflation is going so I'm keeping the same budget but I'm buying way less," added another.
That's the problem, a lot of people are buying less, and the economy is going backwards, just.
"I would say this is not a true recession insofar as there's a lot of volatility and weather impacts in there and labour shortages," said ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner.
"It's not purely weakness in demand."
A recession is what the Reserve Bank really, really wants, a slowdown in demand to get rampant inflation under control.
"Of course, the normal response to a recession is that monetary policy kicks into overdrive to get the economy out of it as quickly as possible but it's not clear that's going to be the plan when the recession itself is the plan," said Zollner.
There are glimmers of good news amidst the big scary R-word.
Unemployment is still at a near record low, sitting at 3.4 percent, while Primary industry exports are on track to hit a record high of $56 billion.
"The strategy that we've got as a Government of growing our exports, of growing our local industry, these are the things that are going to help to get New Zealand through," said Prime Minister Chris Hipkins.
But the National Party has flicked on the big red recession alert light, predicting doom and gloom for months to come.
"I feel like a dark cloud has started to hover over the country because wherever I go people are saying to me that they're worried, they're really anxious about what lies ahead," said finance spokesperson Nicola Willis.
The Prime Minister is trying to calm the farm.
"What the economists are also saying is that this is what they'd describe as a technical recession and that there isn't evidence that New Zealand is experiencing a deep or prolonged economic downturn," said Hipkins.
That's what Richele wants, calm. She's worried all the talk of recession will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
"I'm worried though that people will look at that and it will make them less likely to spend. I know they don't have as much disposable income but people are swayed by what they hear," she said.
All anyone wants to hear right now is when things are gonna get easier.
Jenna Lynch Analysis
This is the medicine the Reserve Bank prescribed for our cost of living crisis.
But knowing that we need it doesn't make it all that much easier to swallow.
As the economists are saying, this is a technical recession, basically a recession in name only. Unemployment is still low and the contraction was as low as you can get and as many are pointing out, had it not been for the cyclone, we might've snuck through without it.
No one likes to hear recession though, least of all a Government in an election year.
Labour is under no illusion that things are rosy out there but as recessions go this is about as good as they could hope for.
While they'll not quite be popping bottles in the Nats tonight, there will be some celebration that the economy tipped just enough to trigger the R-word, even if it is a little r.
This makes their election campaign all that much stronger - National has regained the ground on trust with the economy. Being able to say recession for the next three months is worth its weight in gold, or lack thereof.
But all eyes will be on the next set of figures, due out September 21, one week out from when polls open for early voting in the election.
