Election 2023: National points out 'schoolboy error' in initial costings for Labour's GST policy

National has accused Labour of making a "schoolboy error" with its GST policy.

A policy document distributed prior to the announcement on Sunday shows Labour costing the policy from "2024/25", which means the start of July 2024. For that fiscal year, it's costed at $365m. 

However, Labour promised the policy would begin three months prior on April, 1 2024. That means those three months haven't been costed in the initial policy document. 

The costings in the first policy document sent out.
The costings in the first policy document sent out. Photo credit: Labour.

Another policy document uploaded to the Labour Party website shows a cost for 2023/24 of $115m and a higher cost for 2024/25 of $485m. That's an additional $235m. 

The overall cost for the four forecast years printed on the initial policy document is $1.985b, while the overall cost on the new document is $2.2b.

The costings in the document uploaded to the Labour website.
The costings in the document uploaded to the Labour website. Photo credit: Labour.

Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson did make it clear in a media standup on Sunday that the cost was $2.2b - so the figure on the newer policy document.

"It's $2.2b over the forecast period for the GST off fresh fruit and vegetables and that ramps up over time. We've got a little bit of it in this financial year and then into the next."

A Government spokesperson on Monday said the first policy document was "only sent to media under embargo ahead of the announcement".

"The materials that were publicly released at the time of the announcement were all correct. The correct cost of the GST policy has always been accounted for in our fiscals and was discussed in the media conference yesterday."

The policy announced on Sunday would remove GST from fresh and frozen fruit and vegetables.

National finance spokesperson Nicola Willis said Labour has "mucked up" with an "amatuerish mistake".

"Labour has failed to account for the fiscal impact of removing GST in the 2023/24 fiscal year, and has only partially accounted for the cost of the policy in the 2024/25 fiscal year," she said.

"If the policy is introduced when promised, there will be a three-month hit to the books in the 2023/24 fiscal year, which ends in June. This is not accounted for in Labour’s policy.

"Labour has also made a mistake in their costing for the 2024/25 fiscal year. The annual cost of the policy should be approximately $500 million as in later years, but Labour has only budgeted $365 million. This is not explained."

Willis was asked if it was really a fiscal hole as she claimed if the mistake was only in one document sent to media.

"Yes, it is. Those were the numbers that journalists relied on for their reporting," Willis said.

She said it should have been made clear once the mistake was found.

On Sunday, Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the GST changes and a $25 per week hike to in-work tax credits through Working for Families would leave many families better off by about $30 per week.

"Since becoming Prime Minister my focus has been on delivering cost savings across the key expenses families face," Hipkins said on Sunday.

"While taking GST off fruit and vegetables isn't a silver bullet, alongside other measures to reduce costs we're delivering a meaningful difference.

"Our 10-point cost of living package includes free doctor's prescriptions, cheaper childcare and 20 hours free ECE for two-year-olds, free or half price public transport for children and young people and now GST off fruit and vegetables and a $25 boost to Working for Families – and there's more to come."

Labour estimates that removing GST from fresh and frozen fruit and vegetables would save households about $4.25 per week based on the 2019 Household Economic Survey results and recent price increases.

Announcing the policy on Sunday, Hipkins said New Zealand is "currently an outlier" globally by not having GST carve-outs for certain products.

"In the modern world with electronic transactions it's a fairly simple policy to implement. Our aim is to have it in place as soon as 1 April next year," he said.

It was called a "miserly offering" by the National Party and an "act of desperation from a visionless, poll-driven party" by ACT. The Greens focused on the Working for Families changes, saying its proposal would leave people with more money.