The election campaign proper may not have begun, but the battle to win New Zealanders' votes is certainly already underway.
National is now releasing policies big and small on a near-weekly basis. But the costings - or lack thereof - for many of those proposals are coming under fire from Labour.
The governing party is yet to set out any of its big ideas for the coming three years but is still dealing with that not-so-small task of, well, governing. Expect to see some policies from the red team in the coming weeks.
As for the Greens and ACT, the so-called 'minor parties' both look likely to expand their caucuses post-October on the latest Newshub poll results and could have a larger influence on the next government. Both parties have also well and truly begun their policy pushes.
Te Pāti Māori, the potential kingmaker if the vote trends left, is also making some moves, particularly with a bold tax proposal.
Outside of Parliament, New Zealand First and The Opportunities Party are trying to grab voters' attention, while a flock of fringe parties rumble along not really making a dent yet in any polling.
After next week's recess for politicians, there will only be a three-week sitting block left until MPs head out on the road and the real campaign starts. Expect hoardings, debates, and a whole lot of handshakes.
But before that kicks off, and with the latest polling data on hand, let's have a look at who's trying to get Kiwis' votes, the critical issues on Kiwis' plate, and what events have dominated this year's political agenda.
Who's who?
At the end of 2022, then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern sat down for an interview with Newshub Political Editor Jenna Lynch.
Asked if she was 100 percent committed to running for Mt Albert at the election, Ardern said her plans hadn't changed. At that stage, she hadn't indicated any desire to stand down from the seat or run as a list-only candidate.
A month later, Ardern announced her resignation as Prime Minister, citing a lack of energy.
After a goodbye at Ratana, Ardern did her best to hide from the limelight.
In April, she gave up her role as an MP, standing down from Parliament and signing up as a special envoy for the Christchurch Call among other roles.
Other than Ardern stepping down as Labour leader, there's been no movement at the top of other parliamentary political parties this year.
Changes in leaders in the months leading up to an election aren't uncommon.
Back in 2020, then-National leader Simon Bridges was rolled in May by Todd Muller, who then resigned for health reasons in July. In 2017, Labour, the Greens, and United Future all had changes at the top.
Here are the currently registered political parties and their leaders:
- ACT - David Seymour
- Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party - Maki Herbert and Michael Appleby
- DemocracyNZ - Matt King
- Freedoms New Zealand (umbrella party)
- New Conservative - Helen Houghton and Ted Johnston
- New Nation Party - Michael Jacomb
- New Zealand First - Winston Peters
- New Zealand Labour Party - Chris Hipkins
- Outdoors and Freedom Party - Sue Grey and Donna Pokere-Phillips
- One Party (wanting to become New Zeal)
- Te Pāti Māori - Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
- The Green Party - James Shaw and Marama Davidson
- New Zealand National Party - Christopher Luxon
- The Opportunities Party - Raf Manji
- Vision New Zealand - Hannah Tamaki
National's leader and Botany MP Christopher Luxon is supported by his deputy, Nicola Willis. Willis also took on the finance spokesperson role early last year after the resignation of Simon Bridges. She will be standing in the Ohairu electorate this year against incumbent Labour MP Greg O'Connor.
Chris Bishop is ranked third on National's team and is also the party's campaign chair. He will be battling to win back the electorate of Hutt South after losing it to rising Labour star Ginny Andersen at the 2020 election.
Dr Shane Reti and Paul Goldsmith round out the rest of National's top five, and hold the health and justice portfolios respectively.
Former National leaders Judith Collins and Todd Muller remain in the party's caucus. Collins is currently leading the party's work in the technology and science portfolios, while Muller has decided to tap out of politics at the election.
Labour's top team has changed around in the last seven months after the resignation of Jacinda Ardern.
Chris Hipkins, the Remutaka MP and former Education and Police Minister, took the reins in January, while Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni became the deputy Prime Minister.
Kelvin Davis, the Corrections and Children's Minister, is ranked third within the Cabinet but is the deputy Labour leader.
Grant Robertson, the Finance Minister and former deputy Prime Minister under Ardern, is fourth. He is the current Wellington Central MP but has decided to run only on the list at the election.
Labour's campaign chair is Megan Woods, the Housing Minister. She is at number five.
While National's team has been fairly stable over the past year, Labour's Cabinet has been anything but since Ardern left.
Stuart Nash was sacked from Cabinet for leaking confidential information to donors, Meka Whaitiri defected from Labour for Te Pāti Māori, Michael Wood resigned over his shares scandal, and Kiri Allan stood down after being arrested for allegedly crashing her car.
The latest poll
At the 2020 election, the Labour Party, then led by Ardern, scored a historic victory. With 50 percent of the vote, it gained the first majority for a single party in the MMP era. Its main opponent, the National Party was in ruins, having received just 25.6 percent.
Nearly three years on, the situation has changed significantly.
In November 2021, after getting just 26.1 percent in the Newshub-Reid Research poll that month, a vote of no-confidence in then-leader Judith Collins led to the rise of Christopher Luxon.
National slowly began clawing its way back, reaching the low-40s before settling in the mid-30s.
On Wednesday night's new Newshub-Reid Research poll, it was at 36.6 percent.
The story for Labour is very different. Over the course of 2022, its vote fell from 44.3 percent in February to 32.3 percent in November.
Following Ardern's resignation and Chris Hipkins becoming Labour's head honcho, the party again overtook National, polling at 38 percent.
But there's been another decline since, coming in on Wednesday with just 32.3 percent of the vote.
With both major parties in the 30s, ACT and the Greens are up on the 2020 results.
ACT, which received 7.6 percent of the vote in 2020, is at 12.1 percent on the Newshub results. The Greens are at 9.6 percent, up from 7.9 percent nearly three years ago.
Te Pāti Māori is also on the up. It received 1.2 percent at the 2020 election, but was awarded two seats in the House due to co-leader Rawiri Waititi winning the Waiariki electorate.
On the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll, it was on 2.7 percent, giving it three seats.
New Zealand First, which came in under the 5 percent threshold in 2020, appears on the verge of a possible comeback. It polled at 4.1 percent.
Meanwhile, The Opportunities Party looks like it will rely on winning an electorate to enter Parliament, polling at just 1.5 percent.
If we took the Newshub-Reid Research results and turned them into seats in Parliament, National and ACT could govern with 63 seats, compared to the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori bloc's 57.
What's bugging Kiwis?
The latest Ipsos issues monitor from May reveals what most concerns New Zealanders.
Unsurprisingly, the cost of living and inflation has been at the top of the list for Kiwis for months now, with 63 percent of the population concerned by it.
One of the key battlegrounds for the election - and for addressing the cost of living - will be tax.
National is yet to release its full tax plan, but is promising to index tax thresholds to inflation, meaning tax cuts for Kiwis. The criticism levelled at this by its opponents is that wealthier New Zealanders will get more back than lower-income households. How the party plans to pay for the package remains unclear, but it says it will release costings soon.
Labour is yet to release its tax policy, but Hipkins has ruled out introducing a wealth or capital gains tax. At the Budget, the Government tried to help with the cost of living by removing the $5 prescription fee, keeping public transport subsidies for some, and expanding free early childhood education to include 2-year-olds.
An 'Income Guarantee' is on the cards if the Greens get their way. It would include a tax-free threshold of $10,000, adjustments to tax rates, and other changes that benefit students and beneficiaries, paid for by a wealth tax.
The key point of ACT's income tax policy is a more simple system. It would see the five current tax rates reduced to just two - anyone earning up to $70,000 would pay a 17.5 percent rate, and income above that would be taxed at 28 percent.
Te Pāti Māori says its tax plan would result in cuts for 90 percent of Kiwis, with large changes to tax bands and no GST on food. To pay for that, it would introduce four new taxes, including a wealth tax and a vacant house tax.
Following the cost of living, law and order is the second biggest issue for New Zealanders, according to the Ipsos monitor. Housing and health are tied for third.
National is viewed by voters as being the most capable of managing the cost of living, law and order and housing, while Labour still comes out on top for health.
Recent political events
The political year began with one of the biggest bombshells possible: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was resigning, creating a vacancy in the country's top job.
From then onwards there has been a string of events that have altered the landscape - and caused a number of headaches.
Parliament has been buzzing with the sacking/resignation/defection of four ministers, two natural disasters, public servants getting political, friction over tax, and a whole lot more.
Here are some of the events that have made a mark on 2023 in politics:
