The latest Newshub-Reid Research results may show Labour's support falling, but leader Chris Hipkins' popularity may be the party's small saving grace.
Hipkin's preferred Prime Minister score has risen slightly since the last poll in May.
The results show 24 percent of respondents chose Hipkins as their preferred Prime Minister, which is up 0.6 percent.
National's Christopher Luxon has been criticising Labour for its string of ministerial muck-ups, but the party may have its own personnel problem - Luxon's likeability.
The results show Luxon is the preferred Prime Minister of just 15.9 percent of people. That's down 0.5.
Potential coalition partner David Seymour of ACT is gaining on Luxon. The poll results reveal Seymour is the preferred Prime Minister of 10.9 percent of respondents, up 3.4 points.
But like him or not, Luxon's National Party is heading for power on the latest results.
National would receive 47 seats and ACT would get 16 - that's 63, enough to govern.
If those results were borne out at the election, Luxon would become Prime Minister.
That would end Hipkins' reign on the Ninth Floor with just nine months under his belt.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 26 July – 31 July 2023 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
