The New Zealand public has sent a decisive message to Labour - they've had enough of the drama.
Labour's series of scandals have sent it on a downward spiral, with the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll giving National and ACT the numbers to comfortably form a Government.
There will be no happy chappies or 'Chippys' in the Labour camp after these results.
Labour has dived back down into the low 30s. At 32.3 percent, Labour has fallen 3.6 points, back to the exact same result it got in this poll just before Christmas last year.
That was before Jacinda Ardern stepped down as leader, before its great reset.
Labour's loss is National's gain, popping head - but perhaps not quite shoulders - above to 36.6 percent. It's up 1.3 points.
It's the minor parties having a major moment. Voters are drifting away from the two motherships, with ACT inching towards teens. It's on 12.1 percent, up 1.3 points.
The Greens are also shooting up too. It's on 9.6 percent, up 1.5 points.
Moving to the minnows, here is the comeback king - Winston Peters. New Zealand First is on 4.1 percent, up 1.1 points, within breathing distance of the 5 percent threshold needed to get back into Parliament.
Te Pāti Māori has slipped slightly. It's down 0.8 to 2.7 percent. The Opportunities Party is down 0.5 to 1.5 percent. The New Conservatives are at 0.7 percent, with no change.
Let's turn these results into seats in Parliament. Remember, 61 is the magic number here.
Labour gets 42 seats and the Greens get 12. That's 54 - miles off.
Assuming that Te Pāti Māori wins an electorate, it would get three seats. Even if you add that to the left bloc, it only gets 57 seats. There's no path to power there.
But with National getting 47 seats and ACT getting 16, it crosses the line with 63 seats. That means the Government benches would be awash with blue and gold.
The right would be commanding control.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 26 July – 31 July 2023 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
