New Zealand First remains the kingmaker in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, with both the left and the right blocs needing Winston Peters to form a government.
The National Party is up 0.9 points on last month to 35.9 percent and The Labour Party has increased by 1.4 points, taking it to 27.9 percent.
The ACT Party has dropped by 5.2 points to 9.1 percent while the Greens are down 2.1 points to 10.6 percent.
National and ACT would have 58 seats together, three shy of the 61-seat goal. That is down six seats from last month.
Labour remains on 35 seats, the Greens are down four to 13 and Te Pāti Māori is up one to five seats - giving the left bloc only 53 seats - down three.
Neither bloc would be able to form a government alone, but both could in coalition with NZ First - polling at 6.9 percent giving them nine seats.
But NZ First and Labour have both ruled out working with together, leaving the left bloc with no path to power.
In the preferred prime minister stakes - both National leader Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins have risen:
- Christopher Luxon on 29.0 percent (+4.0)
- Chris Hipkins on 27.0 percent (+2.0)
- Chloë Swarbrick on 6.1 percent (-1.4)
- Jacinda Ardern on 4.5 percent (-2.5)
- Winston Peters on 4.3 percent (-0.2)
- David Seymour on 4 percent (-4.0)
- Nicola Willis on 2.5 percent (no change)
- James Shaw on 1.2 percent (-0.9)
- Marama Davidson on 1.2 percent (+0.9)
- Matt King on 0.7 percent (-0.6)
- Chris Bishop on 0.1 percent (-0.2)
The Taxpayers' Union-Curia Poll was conducted from Sunday 1 October to Wednesday 4 October 2023. The median response was collected on Tuesday 3 October 2023.
The sample size was 1000 eligible New Zealand voters: 800 by phone and 200 by online panel, selected at random. 909 respondents were decided on the party vote.
The maximum sampling error (for a result of 50 percent) is +/- 3.1 percent, at the 95 percent confidence level.
RNZ.
