The election is on a knife-edge once more with the gap between the left and right blocs narrowing and New Zealand First surging in our last Newshub-Reid Research poll of the campaign.
National has been right to panic, with its vote plummeting 4.6 points to 34.5 percent. The party peaked too soon and is looking to snatch chaos from the jaws of victory.
Labour is still losing though. It's only picked up 1 point to 27.5 percent.
The Greens' conspicuous absence from much of this campaign is doing their vote wonders. It's up 0.7 to 14.9 percent.
ACT's fall from grace has baked in, stalling on 8.8 percent.
And look who's gobbling up the vote. Winston Peters has timed his run perfectly with New Zealand First up 1.6 points to 6.8 percent.
Te Pāti Māori is still not making a break for the 5 percent threshold – it's up 0.5 to 2.7 percent. The Opportunities Party is on 2.2 percent, up 0.3.
A new entrant here, New Zealand Loyal. Conspiracy candidate Liz Gunn's party of two is on 1.4 percent.
So let's look at how that is reflected in seats in the House.
Labour gets 35 seats, while the Greens get 19 and Te Pāti Māori get three, as long as they hold onto an electorate. That gives them 57 seats.
On the right, National gets 43 seats and once you add ACT's 11, you have 54 seats. That's lower than the left bloc. National and ACT will need nine seats from New Zealand First to cross the 61-seat threshold.
Three days out from D-day, National has created its own chaos and is panicking in the face of Peters.
The Newshub-Reid Research poll was conducted between 5 October and 10 October 2023 with a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
