For many farmers in Hawke's Bay 2020 was a challenging enough year, with the region experiencing its worst drought in recent memory.
But conditions are set to get even harsher over the coming decades, with a new report forecasting wildfires, worsening droughts, crop damage and more pests and diseases as a result of climate change.
The report - Climate change projections and impacts for Tairāwhiti and Hawke's Bay - outlines the worst-case scenario in the region over the next 70 years.
It also looks at a more optimistic scenario where greenhouse gases are reduced, and the effects of climate change aren't as severe.
"It's an incredibly important report, as it shows in detail how our region's people, businesses, agriculture and infrastructure will be impacted," says James Palmer, chief executive of Hawke's Bay Regional Council.
"It underlines that we have a short window of time to act, and we must act now."
Palmer said the stability of the climate was "arguably our greatest and our most precious asset" and was the foundation of the region's prosperity and wellbeing.
According to the report, annual average temperatures are projected to rise between 0.5C and 1C by 2040, and between 1.5C and 3C by 2090.
"Increases in average temperatures might not sound huge but they mean heatwaves will become more common, with increases of between 10-20 days by 2040, and 20-60 days by 2090," Palmer said.
Annual rainfall is also projected to drop 5 percent by 2040, and by up to 15 percent in parts of Hawke's Bay by 2090. Rivers could also have a 20 percent decrease in flow by 2090.
"This means there will be more droughts, and they'll be harder to endure. It means our agricultural production will likely decrease and the health of our rivers will likely decrease, which will also affect our drinking water supplies," Palmer said.
Despite there being less rainfall, "extreme, rare rainfall" was predicted to become more severe.
The report also forecast a worst-case scenario of a sea-level rise of 0.4 metres in 40 years, which would be accompanied by worsening coastal erosion.
The higher temperatures would hurt the primary sector through a growth of pests and diseases "which will impact the quality and quantity of fruit and vegetable crops, as well as the productivity of forestry and pasture", Palmer said.
Rex Graham, chair of Hawke's Bay Regional Council, said the report sent a clear message that action needed to be taken now.
"This is a scary report that shows how quickly the climate crisis is coming at us. We must do more to make our region more climate resilient, and decrease our greenhouse gas emissions."
The report also highlighted a number of opportunities a change in climate could bring to the region - such as increased pasture and plant productivity to select plants, less frost damage, and longer summers for tourists - but Palmer said these benefits were "heavily outweighed" by the negative consequences forecast.
