Newshub Nation's political panel came together on Saturday to discuss the first week of official campaign launches and there was some scathing criticism of the major parties' approaches to business and climate change.
PR consultant Matthew Hooton said there's "a collapse in the Labour vote at present".
"The polls are pretty dire for Labour and they will wish they held a snap election back in April before the Budget."
Hooton predicts a lot of the votes Labour is losing will go towards the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori.
He said while Te Pāti Māori will be hoping for seven seats, he believes they will get about five - one of which may come from Northland where he recalled Tau Henare won the Northern Māori electorate in 1993 running for NZ First.
"The north tends to feel that is it not respected by the two big parties and it tends to do odd things, such as voting for Winston Peters," Hooton said.
The NZ Herald's Simon Wilson disagreed with Hooton, saying "I'm not sure I would overstate the collapse on for Labour".
He noted "most of the polls we've seen were taken before the party launches".
Wilson applauded Labour's launch and their message they are in the fight, "and they had their free dental policy and that was very strong for them", he said.
While National's launch made them "look like winners, you can't say Labour are out of this by any means", Wilson said.
Hooton emphasised potential Labour voters will "need to see polls with a three in front", referring to recent polls showing Labour polling in the 20s.
"Once people think Labour can't win, then they either don't vote or they go looking for a small party and it becomes self-fulfilling," he said.
"If you're a left-wing person, why wouldn't you vote for the Greens when Labour won't even reform the tax system?" Hooton asked.
Wilson was quick to question that argument and Hooton conceded "there are similar issues going on the right".
Political scientist from Victoria University Lara Greaves agreed the election is "going to come down to turnout".
"Do people feel motivated enough to show up to vote?" she asked.
"That's something that the parties will ultimately be looking to strategise around to see who they can and can't get to turn out."
She said this was reflected in the 2005 election where turnout was crucial for Labour's win.
Hooton argued New Zealand is currently a "cynical electorate".
"They had nine years of John Key, brighter futures and addressing the underclass and for nine years. Nothing happened and then it's even more ridiculous over the last six years."
He said New Zealand has had "15 years of people hearing promises from politicians which are platitudes on the face of it and they haven't even been delivered to that extent".
Wilson agreed people "who wanted some kind of tax reform on the left will be looking seriously at the Greens, and perhaps Te Pāti Māori as well, but also I think that as we get closer to election day a number of people in the middle will start thinking back over the last three years and realising that Labour did an awful lot to save this country from economic as well as health disaster".
"Although people have soured since, I think they'll start remembering that again," Wilson said.
Another sentiment in this election isneither main party is speaking to business, an important area in the long-term, Hooton said.
For business, "it's the most pathetic offering from the two main parties I've ever seen or even imagined", he said.
He references inflation, a balance of trade deficit that is worse than in Robert Muldoon's time and an unprecedented fiscal deficit as key reasons there needs to be more offered.
"The two main parties think the smart thing to do is to throw fuel on the inflation fire with tax cuts or working for families' handouts.
"These are not serious people," Hooton said.
Wilson said Labour and National need to address productivity and wealth creation in business as well as addressing "the reality that we now know in this country is really big in relation to climate change".
"This country in the future will face enormous pressures on the way we live and, on the economy, and neither major party has any serious way of approaching that and that is a real problem."
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