Opinion: Breaking down the Warriors' run to the NRL finals

OPINION: The Warriors find themselves in an unusual position on the NRL ladder at this time of the season, as they head into the final stretch of the season.

The New Zealand side currently sit in seventh on 24 competition points with seven games remaining - four points clear of the ninth-placed Wests Tigers and six clear of the 10th and 11th-placed Canberra Raiders and Newcastle Knights respectively.

Mathematically, the Warriors currently need to win four of their remaining seven games to clinch a playoff berth, but that will change as results unfold over the coming weeks. Based on last year's top eight, the magic number to secure a finals berth may be 30 competition points.

If that’s true, the Warriors will need to win only three of their last seven games to make the finals for the first time since 2011.

Over the past six years, the Warriors have continually crumbled in the ladder stages - their combined record for their last seven games over that span is 8-34, with winless streaks in 2012, 2015 and 2017.

But 2018 has been different feeling to it. Yes, there have been glimpses of the Warriors of the past with some dreadful performances, but it has also been a year of firsts for the club.

They got off to their best start in franchise history by winning their first five games of the season - one of them in Perth.

Assessing the Warriors’ run home, four of the remaining seven games are in Auckland, while they will play three more across the Tasman.

Surprisingly, the Warriors are tied with the Rabbitohs (7-2) for the best away record this season, compared to last season, when they only had one road win - and their most since 2011 (including finals).

Only three of their final seven games are against top-eight sides, while the two teams lingering outside the eight - the Raiders and Tigers - have six and three (two against the Bunnies) respectively.    

NRL.com claims the Warriors have the ninth-easiest run home, easier than the Tigers and Raiders (who have the hardest).

A six-year absence from the playoffs should be enough to spur on any team, but adding to the motivation is news that club stalwart Simon Mannering will retire at the end of the season.

He has been with the club through the glory years and the toughest ones, and if he plays for the rest of the season, he will suit up for Game 300 against the Raiders at 'Simon Mannering Stadium'.

Wink wink.  

Ten years ago, the club was determined to send Ruben Wiki off a winner and made it all the way to the Grand Final qualifier, before it was stopped by eventual winners, the Manly Sea Eagles.

If anything, the players of today need to do their best lift their game, put these inconsistent performances behind them and win one for Mannering, because that’s what he would do for anybody else.

If the Warriors want to be considered contenders, they will need to improve on a few aspects of their game.

According to Fox Sports stats, the Warriors have conceded 151 penalties - the fifth most in the NRL - while they have missed the third-most tackles with 498.

A few big wins could go a long way also, with the Warriors point differential not in their favour.

The Warriors currently control their destiny. If they keep doing what they’re doing, then they will be in the playoffs.

Otherwise, in the first week of September, we will be pondering what might have been once again.

The Warriors' run home is:

Round 19 vs Storm (H)

Opinion: Breaking down the Warriors' run to the NRL finals

Head-to-head: Played 41, Won 16, Lost 23, Drawn 2

Storm 2018 home record: 6-2

Storm 2018 away record: 6-3

Last time met: The Storm gave the Warriors their largest loss of the season in a 50-10 demolition on Anzac Day.

Stat: The Storm have won six of the last seven games between these two teams.

 

Round 20 vs Titans (A)

Opinion: Breaking down the Warriors' run to the NRL finals

Head-to-head: Played 23, Won 16, Lost 7

Titans 2018 home record: 3-5

Titans 2018 away record: 3-7

Last time met: The Warriors outclassed the Titans 20-8 in Auckland back in March.

Stat: The Titans haven't beaten the Warriors on the Gold Coast since their first-round finals match in 2010, while the Warriors have won their last seven games between the two teams.

 

Round 21 vs Dragons (A)

Opinion: Breaking down the Warriors' run to the NRL finals

Head-to-head: Played 27, Won 6, Lost 21

Dragons 2018 home record: 9-1

Dragons 2018 away record: 4-4

Last time met: The Warriors put in a complete performance to give the Dragons their first loss of the season back in Round Seven.

Stat: The Warriors have only beaten the Dragons once in Australia.

 

Round 22 vs Knights (H)

Opinion: Breaking down the Warriors' run to the NRL finals

Head-to-head: Played 37, Won 19, Lost 18

Knights 2018 home record: 4-6

Knights 2018 away record: 4-4

Last time met: The Warriors fought off a late a Knights fightback to win 26-22 back in 2017 Round One.

Stat: David Fusitu'a has scored eight tries in his last three games against the Knights.

 

Round 23 vs Bulldogs (A)

Opinion: Breaking down the Warriors' run to the NRL finals

Head-to-head: Played 36, Won 14, Lost 20, Drawn 2

Bulldogs 2017 home record: 2-6

Bulldogs 2017 away record: 2-8

Last time met: The Warriors scraped out a 21-14 win on a wet Friday night in Auckland last season.

Stat: The Warriors haven’t beaten the Bulldogs in Australia since 2010.

 

Round 24 vs Panthers (H)

Opinion: Breaking down the Warriors' run to the NRL finals

Head-to-head: Played 40, Won 16, Lost 23, Drawn 1

Panthers 2017 home record: 7-3

Panthers 2017 away record: 4-4

Last time met: An understrength Panthers side destroyed the Warriors 34-6 in Penrith two weeks ago.

Stat: The Panthers have beaten the Warriors in six of their last seven meetings.

 

Round 25 vs Raiders (H)

Opinion: Breaking down the Warriors' run to the NRL finals

Head-to-head: Played 39, Won 21, Lost 18

Raiders 2017 home record: 5-4

Raiders 2017 away record: 3-6

Last time met: Shaun Johnson kicked two late field goals to break Raiders hearts in Canberra in Round Three.

Stat: The Warriors have won 11 of 18 against Canberra and only  three times in Auckland since 2002.

Ben Francis is a Newshub online sports producer.

Join us at 4pm Sunday for live updates of the Warriors vs Storm NRL clash.