OPINION: It's time to get the calculator out as the NRL season comes to an end with the NZ Warriors an outside shot at playing September footy.
But even the most optimistic of Warriors faithful would admit the pathway to the 2021 playoffs is ridden with roadblocks.
With just four games to go, the Kiwi club sits 12th on the ladder, four points outside the top eight with poor for-and-against-points differentials.
But dive a little deeper and you'll discover their outlook is much brighter than it appears.
With only one top-eight club left to play, and two of their fixtures against wooden spoon candidates - Bulldogs and Broncos - the Mount Smart drums are starting to quietly beat again.
As it stands, the Warriors are in an eight-team battle for the final two playoff spots - that could shrink to six, possibly five by the end of the upcoming round.
And a few of the clubs above them have quite the daunting final stretch home in the last month of the regular season.
Here is a glance at how the final month plays out for the teams on the bubble of playoff contention.
Gold Coast Titans - 20 points
Round 22: Rabbitohs (A)
Round 23: Storm (H)
Round 24: Knights (A)
Round 25: Warriors (H)
Canberra Raiders - 20 points
Round 22: Storm (A)
Round 23: Sea Eagles (H)
Round 24: Warriors (A)
Round 25: Roosters (H)
Newcastle Knights - 20 points
Round 22: Sharks (A)
Round 23: Bulldogs (A)
Round 24: Titans (H)
Round 25: Broncos (A)
Cronulla Sharks - 18 points
Round 22: Knights (H)
Round 23: Tigers (A)
Round 24: Broncos (H)
Round 25: Storm (H)
St George Dragons - 18 points
Round 22: Panthers (H)
Round 23: Roosters (H)
Round 24: Cowboys (H)
Round 25: Rabbitohs (A)
NZ Warriors - 16 points
Round 22: Bulldogs (H)
Round 23: Broncos (A)
Round 24: Raiders (H)
Round 25: Titans (A)
Wests Tigers - 16 points
Round 22: Cowboys (A)
Round 23: Sharks (H)
Round 24: Panthers (A)
Round 25: Bulldogs (H)
North Queensland Cowboys - 14 points
Round 22: Tigers (H)
Round 23: Eels (A)
Round 24: Dragons (A)
Round 25: Sea Eagles (H)
The simple equation
Put simply, if the Warriors win their final four games, they have an excellent chance of making the finals for the first time in three years.
They could end up on as many as 24 points, which should be enough to squeeze them in - if the top six clubs continue to win.
However as is often the case, you never know with the Warriors and it could all be over by Sunday night if they fail to beat the Bulldogs.
But with the Broncos, Raiders and Titans to come, the 24-point mark isn't out of reach.
NRL.com's ladder predictor is a fascinating tool to waste several hours of your life away on each week and thanks to that - here is a look at Newshub's final season standings.
- Melbourne Storm - 46
- Penrith Panthers - 44
- South Sydney Rabbitohs - 42
- Manly Sea Eagles - 34
- Sydney Roosters - 34
- Parramatta Eels - 30
- Newcastle Knights - 28
- NZ Warriors - 24
- Cronulla Sharks - 22
- Gold Coast Titans - 20
- St George Dragons - 20
- Canberra Raiders - 20
- Wests Tigers - 18
- North Queensland Cowboys - 16
- Brisbane Broncos - 12
- Canterbury Bulldogs - 6
What needs to happen?
So how do the Warriors possibly sneak into the eight you ask?
Simple.
Part one: Win all four of their remaining games.
Outside of the Newcastle Knights, the Warriors have the "easiest" finish to the season of any of the clubs around them.
Part two: The top six clubs keep winning.
The Titans play both the Rabbitohs and Storm in their final four games.
The Raiders play the Storm, Manly and Roosters.
The Sharks play Melbourne, while the Dragons play the Panthers, Roosters and Souths.
Wests have a decent run home, but have been in horrible form and play the Panthers in round 24, while the Cowboys still have to play the Eels and Manly.
So as long as those elite six sides can do the job, the Warriors task becomes simpler.
Part three: The Knights must beat the Sharks (Round 22) and the Titans (Round 24).
That's it - a simple (yeah right!) breakdown of how Nathan Brown and his New Zealand Warriors side achieve finals footy in his first year as coach.
It's really just a matter of faith.
Join Newshub for live updates of the Warriors v Bulldogs NRL clash from 3:50pm Sunday.
