Many polar bears might have nowhere left to live in just 15 years, with a new study suggesting summers in the Arctic will be virtually ice-free by 2034.
Researchers looked at satellite data from the past four decades and used climate models to simulate future summers in the Arctic, and found it'll almost definitely happen sometime in the 2030s - most likely 2034.
"Every year, the Arctic sea ice cap expands and thickens during winter and then shrinks and thins during summer," the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in response to the study.
"In recent decades, increasing temperatures have caused rapid reductions in ice extent in all seasons, but especially at the end of summer."
Scientists will consider the Arctic ice-free when the amount falls below 1 million square kilometres - an area about the size of Egypt - out of a total area of 14 million square kilometres (that's because some ice will linger in bays, even as the ocean itself goes ice-free).
"The rapid changes in sea ice pose challenges to the Arctic ecosystem, including the decline of habitat for Arctic animals such as polar bears and increases in coastal erosion that may directly impact Arctic people," the study, published in journal Climate, reads.
Polar bears head out onto the sea ice to find food. When it vanishes they tend to fast, according to Polar Bears International.
Some of the scientists' modelling suggested the Arctic could be ice-free as early as 2023, but they admitted that was unlikely. Last year's northern hemisphere summer saw a near record-low amount of ice at 4.15 million square kilometres. In 1979, it covered 6.5 million square kilometres.
In further bad news for the climate, the disappearing of the Arctic ice will open up potential new oil drilling opportunities, the NOAA says. The burning of fossil fuels is of course what's causing the Earth to heat up in the first place, causing the ice to melt.
Scientists also fear with more ships - including cruises - heading into the Arctic, the possibility of a devastating oil spill increases.
While the amount of sea ice varies each summer, the climate modelling suggests not long after 2034, the Arctic will be ice free every summer - from around 2050.
