Coronavirus: Study reveals the places to avoid during a COVID-19 outbreak

If New Zealand was to experience an uncontrolled outbreak of COVID-19, you might want to avoid churches and public transport if you can't bring yourself to practice social distancing.

A survey of people in Maryland, US - which has a similar population to New Zealand - found those who frequently use public transport are four times more likely to have been infected with the virus, which has killed more than 900,000 people worldwide, than those who never used it.

Visiting a place of worship was linked with a 16-fold increase in risk.

But practising social distancing was associated with a 10-fold decrease in risk.

"Our findings support the idea that if you're going out, you should practice social distancing to the extent possible because it does seem strongly associated with a lower chance of getting infected," said senior author Sunil Solomon, en epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.

Maryland has a population of 6 million people - slightly more than New Zealand - but has had more than 115,000 confirmed COVID-19 infections and more than 3800 deaths. New Zealand has had 1792 cases and 24 deaths. 

Rather than rely on aggregated cellphone tracking data, as previous research into behaviour amid the pandemic have done, the researchers actually surveyed individuals. This allowed them to see how seriously different demographics are taking the threat.

Unsurprisingly, they found the vast majority of over-65s - at most risk of serious illness or death from the virus - were following distancing guidelines, while only 58 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds were.

Tellingly, the survey was done in June - and in July, the state had its biggest jump in new cases since April.

Maryland's daily COVID numbers.
Maryland's daily COVID numbers. Photo credit: Google

"Younger people in the state were less likely to reduce their infection risk with social distancing - and a month later a large proportion of the SARS-CoV-2 infections detected in Maryland was among younger people," said Dr Solomon, using the formal name of the virus which causes the disease COVID-19.

"So, it points to the possibility of using these quick, inexpensive surveys to predict where outbreaks are going to happen based on behaviours, and then mobilising public health resources accordingly."

An evangelical church is at the centre of New Zealand's current cluster of cases, and there have been cases of infected people on buses - as passengers and drivers - leading to new rules mandating face masks when using public transport. Church leaders have warned misinformation about the virus is "spreading like wildfire" through congregations here, with many sceptical of the science.

Outbreaks overseas have also been linked back to religious groups, particularly in the US and South Korea.