A Republican Party strategist and donor is so confident Donald Trump will win this week's US presidential election, he's promised to appear on The AM Show wearing nothing but Borat's infamous green swimsuit if he's wrong.
Trump is trailing in the polls, looking set for a massive defeat at the hands of his Democratic opponent Joe Biden. But of course, that's what the polls also said in 2016 when he was up against Hillary Clinton, Trump managing to eke out an unlikely victory despite losing the popular vote by millions.
California vintner John Jordan has spent millions of dollars backing Republica candidates. He told The AM Show there are "lots of different ways" Biden could lose, saying despite the Democratic Party's push to get supporters to the voting booths early, Republicans have turned out in bigger numbers than expected.
"Joe Biden is not going to win this election," Jordan told The AM Show on Tuesday, dismissing polls which show Biden comfortably ahead in most battleground states and even possibly within reach of winning states like Texas, which usually vote Republican.
"[The polling average] in these states include polls that are very, very old, they undercount Republicans and they don't take into account in Texas and Florida for example, the Republicans are doing better in those states with returned ballots - not polls, but returned actual votes - than they did in 2016...
"Biden's not going to win the election. He's going to win the popular vote by 1 or 2 million - by about the same margin that Hillary Clinton did - but he's not going to win Texas. Florida's a goner... he's not going to win Georgia."
The US President isn't decided by popular vote - if it was, Al Gore would have been elected in 2000 instead of George W Bush, and we'd be currently nearing the end of Clinton's first term. Instead, each state awards a number of delegates to a system called the Electoral College - get 270 or more of the 538 delegates, and you win the presidency.
Trump won the 2016 election by narrowly winning a few battleground states - the fact nearly 3 million more Americans voted for Clinton didn't matter.
AM Show host Duncan Garner asked Jordan if, like him, he'll go vegan for a year if his prediction was wrong (Garner wrongly predicting Labour wouldn't win an outright majority).
Jordan wasn't willing to give up meat but is willing to risk international shame.
"If I lose, I'll make an appearance on your show wearing the Borat swimsuit."
Biden victory likely, polls and experts say
But how likely is a Biden loss, really? US-based Kiwi political commentator Danielle McLaughlin said polling has gotten a lot better since the embarrassment of 2016.
"We saw polling improvements in 2018 when Democrats took back the House of Representatives. The polling is better, Joe Biden's margins are about twice what Hillary Clinton's margins were in terms of the amount by which she's ahead in the polls. We don't have any third-party candidates which were crucial to Trump's win and Clinton's loss."
She said in states like Wisconsin - crucial to Trump's victory in 2016 - his approval rating has hit the floor thanks to his woeful handling of the pandemic response. She also disputed Jordan's claim there are multiple paths to victory for Trump.
"There are far more solidly Democratic states than solidly Republican states, and a great many of the so-called swing states show that Joe Biden has some kind of a lead. What he needs to do is win back Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - typically blue states that Donald Trump won by less than a percentage point last time around.
"But it's looking like he might get even more states - Florida he is ahead, Texas he is tied, North Carolina and Arizona - which used to be safely Republican - are looking like they might be within his reach.
"He has far more ways of getting to the presidency than Donald Trump. If Donald Trump doesn't get Florida... it's almost over for him."
Election data site FiveThirtyEight simulated the election 40,000 times based on the current data, finding Biden the victor 89 times out of 100. In 2016, it gave Clinton a 72 percent chance of victory.
The New York Times says even if the polls are as wrong this year as they were in 2016, Biden should still win - for example, taking into account the bias of 2016, he's still several points ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan, and narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania and Arizona.
"The polls show Joe Biden with a far more significant lead than the one held by Hillary Clinton, and many of the likeliest explanations for the polling misfire do not appear to be in play today," wrote polling expert Nate Cohn.
He says the three states to watch are Georgia, Florida and North Carolina - all are on a knife-edge. But even if Trump wins all three, he only gives the incumbent a 50 percent chance of a second term in the White House.
The Economist's modelling gives Biden a 96 percent chance of victory.
Another election forecast site - 270towin - says on polling, Biden will win the Electoral College 351-187. Only counting states where the margin is more than 5 percent, Biden already has 258 of the 270 delegates locked in - only needing one or two of the swing states for victory.
"I do think Joe Biden will win," said McLaughlin.
