A political science expert believes China won't invade neighbouring Taiwan in the next five years despite increased tension in recent times.
China has stepped up military pressure to try to force Taiwan to accept Chinese rule, which comes after a visit to Taipei by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
The visit by Pelosi heightened concerns on the island about the prospect of an attack by its giant neighbour, which has not ruled out using force to bring democratically governed Taiwan under its control.
But Taiwan has said it will not back down on its sovereignty or compromise on freedom and democracy, and its people oppose Beijing's idea of "one country, two systems" management for Taiwan, the self-ruled island's presidential office said earlier this month.
China's Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third leadership term on Sunday and has doubled down on threats to annex Taiwan.
Alex Tan, a political science professor who specialises in Asian politics at Canterbury University, told AM on Tuesday the language used by Xi in his speeches shows China is worried about the global economic situation.
"The language that is being used in the speeches and in his speech particularly acknowledges China's concern about global economic volatility, the global political situation from Ukraine all the way to our region [New Zealand]," Tan told AM fill-in co-host Patrick Gower.
"The emphasis on those securities is two parts. It's the traditional military security concerns and national security concerns, but also the economic security concerns."
Tan believes China won't invade Taiwan in the next five years.
"Whether it [China] will invade Taiwan, I think probably not in the next five years. I personally do not see the People's Liberation Army (PLA) as ready to undertake such a huge conflict," he said.
"If they try to invade Taiwan, that will be really a big, big thing. I don't think at the moment PLA can embark on that adventure, so to speak."
But Tan warned further down the track, he couldn't rule out China invading Taiwan.
"It's harder to say when we're looking at five to 10 years assuming the PLA continues to modernise and the Chinese economy can support that type of modernisation," he told AM.
"But there are a lot of ifs there and a lot of assumptions. Number one, the economy has to be performing well otherwise, there's no way that a weak economy can support a major war, just look at Russia. A weak economy cannot support a military adventure like that."
Watch the full interview above.
