When the Ukraine invasion began on February 24, 2022 many anticipated Russia to demolish the smaller country in a week - but now a year later there are no signs either side is slowing down.
A year ago at dawn, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine, escalating the war and triggering one of the largest displacements of people in Europe since World War Two.
At the heart of the devastation is a staggering death toll that continues to rise.
While the exact number of casualties for each side is unknown, US officials have estimated around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the invasion.
The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights verified a total of 7199 civilian deaths during the invasion as of February 13, 2023. Of them, 438 were children.
As the war enters its second year, will it continue down its endless stalemate spiral or will the world see one side come out victorious on the battlefield?
Newshub spoke to foreign experts Dr Alexander Gillespie and Dr Robert Patman for their predictions.
Current outlook on the war
University of Otago international relations professor Robert Patman said Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a "catastrophic misjudgment" by Putin.
"He expected to overrun Ukraine in about a week and decapitate and assassinate the Ukrainian Government. But it didn't happen," Dr Patman said.
Russia has been suffering humiliating military defeats including retreating from the city of Kherson in November.
At the start of this year, Ukraine is estimated to have recaptured just over 50 percent of the territory Russia took since the invasion began.
But while Ukraine has some momentum following a successful offensive at the end of 2022, Russia is now making gains.
Unfortunately, both experts agree the war will likely continue ramping up, ultimately resulting in more bloodshed.
University of Waikato's international law professor Alexander Gillespie said he expects "a fair bit of bloodshed between now" and the war ending because both sides believe they can win.
But Gillespie said the losses, scale and escalation in weaponry are not, in his opinion, sustainable.
He said it's likely Russia will run short of soldiers which would impact its ability to fight.
In September, Putin announced a general mobilisation of 300,000 conscripted troops. Ukraine's military intelligence claimed in January, Russia was set to order an additional 500,000 conscripts for a major new offensive on the invasion's anniversary.
"You can't keep taking soldiers from your country without expecting some kind of backlash from the population," Dr Gillespie said.
It's a view shared by Dr Patman who said if Russia ramps up its offensive, it will lose a significant number of troops.
"It will be very costly and very bloody," he said. "There may be a period where the Ukrainians are content to absorb the offensive and be defensive - but they'll be looking for the counter-punch."
How could this end?
Experts generally believe there are two ways the war could end: with a negotiated peace treaty or military victory.
Dr Patman predicts the next year of the war will fall into two phases.
In the first phase, he expects Russia to be on the front foot but big casualties and a lack of territorial gains will see that switch.
Since Newshub spoke to Dr Patman, Russia's renewed major offensive began with heavy artillery fire on the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, as its capture would give Russia a new foothold in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said last week, Russia was in a hurry to achieve military gains before Ukraine gathers strength.
In the second phase, Dr Patman predicts Ukraine to unleash a successful counter-offensive.
"War is so unexpected. That's the one thing you can predict about it: the unexpected will occur," he said. "But I do think in the second half of the year, the Ukrainians will defeat the Russians."
Dr Patman said sophisticated international weaponry will help Ukraine in its fight against Russia.
Ukraine has recently been given the green light to receive tanks from Germany, the US and the UK.
But what could be a real game changer for Ukraine is receiving the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), the US committed to sending earlier this month.
With a range of just over 150km, the GLSBD is expected to double Ukraine's current strike range.
This would allow the Ukrainian military to attack Russian forces from a greater distance.
"They are also getting what they have been craving… enhanced potential to hit any part of Ukraine which is occupied by Russia," Dr Patman said.
He said at the moment Russia is placing their equipment behind Ukraine's weapons maximum reach but once they receive and integrate the GLSDB in their military it means Russia will be vulnerable from any part of Ukraine they occupy.
Peace negotiations
Dr Gillespie said the war could end with a peace treaty but there will be difficult questions about territory, liability, compensation and war crimes.
"The big question is what are you going to do with the eastern country of Crimea… because the chances of Ukraine fully pushing the Russians out is very difficult," he said.
Zelensky has said he favours peace talks but only if Russia relinquishes all Ukrainian territory, which includes not only areas seized since the invasion, but also territory held by Russia or its proxies since 2014.
Russia, meanwhile, has committed to its full "liberation" of the two Donbas regions.
"Right now the Ukrainians and Russians are both talking past each other. They both believe that absolute victory is possible," Dr Gillespie said.
Are the nuclear threats real?
Despite Putin's repeated threats of using nuclear weapons, both experts agree that is unlikely.
This is partly because nuclear weapons would essentially be a suicide mission, and while Putin might be "delusional", he's not suicidal, Dr Patman said.
Dr Gillespie agreed, saying Putin will be well aware turning to nukes would result in a response from the US.
However, while unlikely, he said the risk needs to be taken very seriously because of the temptation for someone like Putin - who doesn't want to lose face.
"In many ways, you've got to be able to create a way for him to save face or to be able to walk away from this. It's not just a war about territory, it's also a war about Putin."
